Industries · Private equity & VC
Private Equity & Venture Capital
Entry timing signals that identify optimal windows, and exit intelligence that prices the door before you underwrite the deal.
- 1–6mo
- entry windows, with confidence
- 27/54
- markets with no working exit route
- 68%
- of 2025 exit liquidity now domestic
African private equity holds for 6.4 years on average and returns 0.13 exits per new investment. Neither number is a verdict on the asset class — but both are arithmetic that belongs in the underwriting model rather than the risk section of the IC paper.
The problem
What makes this hard
The exit is assumed, not priced
27 of 54 markets score critical on exit liquidity: no working route at any price. Entry there is a hold-to-maturity decision.
Timing is left to judgement
Deployment schedules are set by fund mechanics, not by market conditions, and the cost of a mistimed entry is rarely attributed.
Currency is carried naked
17% of African PE managers hedge with financial instruments. 94% of the rest cite cost.
With Kilwa
What changes
Entry windows with a date range
METI forecasts 1–6 month windows with an explicit ENTER, HOLD or WATCH posture and a confidence indicator.
Exit liquidity scored before you commit
The Exit Liquidity Score maps which of the 54 markets have one working door, two, or none.
The sponsor-to-sponsor wave, tracked
A record 26% of 2025 exits were sponsor-to-sponsor. We score where that pool reaches next.
Research for this mandate
All insights
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Built for private equity & vc.
A working session on the markets you follow, with the decomposition behind every score.