Kilwa Research

Africa investment research: nineteen flagships, one scored continent.

We score tail risk, currency, exits, trade friction and energy across all 54 African markets — and publish the model, the inputs and the robustness testing alongside every number.

Kilwa Atlas · No. 6 · 23 September 2026

Kilwa Atlas No. 6: Five Gates — Private Credit in Africa

Capital for African private credit tripled in five years, and more than half of the money raised between 2021 and 2024 was still waiting to be lent. This Atlas explains why with one idea: a private loan has to pass five gates before the lender is repaid, and in most markets at least one is shut. The Private Credit Conditions Index scores each gate from 0 to 100 in twenty markets, a screen puts all 54 into four lanes on court speed and the proceeds gate, and five enforcement precedents show what lenders actually got back and how long it took.

2 of 20scored markets where every gate clears 55, the Deep band: Mauritius at 78.5 and South Africa at 73.7 on the Private Credit Conditions Index

Read the analysis

Liquidity Signal · No. 1

Exit and Liquidity 2026

African private equity recorded 81 exits in 2025, the second-highest count on record, and 27% of limited partners still told AVCA they would slow commitments in 2026. Both facts are true, because an exit count is not a distribution. This edition scores the four things that stand between a signed African sale and money in an investor's account: who the buyer is, whether a listing is a real alternative, whether another sponsor will take the position, and whether the proceeds can leave the country.

17 September 2026 · 54 markets screened · 12 scored · 4 routes and a gate · 12 min read

Minerals Signal · No. 1

Critical Minerals 2026

Resource nationalism became continental policy in 2025 and 2026. The DRC capped cobalt exports, Zimbabwe moved from a ban to a quota toward a full 2027 stop, and six more markets now restrict raw mineral exports or require local processing. This edition screens all 54 markets on where Africa's mineral endowment actually sits, scores ten on two published gauges, and asks, separately, where the window to capture more of its value is open right now.

14 September 2026 · 54 markets screened · 10 scored · 4 quadrants · 11 min read

Energy Signal · No. 1

African Energy 2026

Sixteen energy markets read on two published gauges: a suitability read for where energy capital can compound over three years and a timing read for whether the next six to twelve months favour entry. Timing peaks in East African hydro, structure sits in the South and North, four markets clear both bars, and the fastest-growing segment is the one official statistics cannot yet count. Published ahead of African Energy Week, Cape Town, 12 to 16 October 2026.

7 September 2026 · 16 markets · 6 segments · 96 rated cells · 12 min read

Kilwa Atlas · No. 5

Kilwa Atlas No. 5: Africa Capital Allocation Outlook 2026–2029

Across 54 markets, structural strength and entry timing are uncorrelated, and thirteen markets clear both bars today. The capstone of the first four Atlases reads every market on two published gauges — a structural read for where capital can compound over three years and a timing read for whether the next six to twelve months favour entry — then maps twelve deep-dive markets against Kilwa's eight sectors and says, for six kinds of reader, what to do in each quadrant.

4 September 2026 · 54 markets · 12 deep dives · 8 sectors · 18 min read

Kilwa Atlas · No. 4

Kilwa Atlas No. 4: Policy to Profit — Regulatory Execution and Market Entry

Africa passed a record volume of business law between 2024 and 2026, and ten of forty-two measures changed a P&L. This Atlas tracks 42 dated measures across 22 markets up a five-rung Execution Ladder, from announcement to a measured effect on revenue, margin, capital or timing; screens all 54 markets for the capacity to implement; grades twelve on their execution record; and prices the external rules — AGOA, CBAM, AfCFTA — that arrive from outside.

4 September 2026 · 54 markets screened · 22 in the register · 12 deep dives · 24 min read

Kilwa Atlas · No. 3

Kilwa Atlas No. 3: Africa FX, Funding and Capital Mobility

The queues have cleared in the two largest markets; the risk has moved, not gone. Capital in Africa passes four gates — fund it, hedge it, receive it, repatriate it — and this Atlas scores all 54 markets on two published gauges, Capital Mobility Risk and Currency Pressure, reconstructs the 2015 to 2026 convertibility record, prices what a hedge costs where one exists, and states where distributions can be trusted, where they are negotiated and where they are trapped.

4 September 2026 · 54 markets scored · 10 deep dives · 24 min read

Kilwa Atlas · No. 2

Kilwa Atlas No. 2: Africa Trade and Investment

A Right to Win must survive five gates — demand, capability, permission, cash and execution. This Atlas screens 54 markets across the EU27, China, US and Gulf corridors, prices the constraints behind four product cases — Moroccan wiring, Ugandan coffee, Kenyan roses and Ivorian cocoa — and states where capital should enter, wait or stop.

31 August 2026 · 54 markets · 4 corridors · 4 product cases · 20 min read

Kilwa Atlas · No. 1

Kilwa Atlas No. 1: AI Infrastructure & Sovereign Compute

Power availability, not connectivity and not demand, is now the binding constraint on AI infrastructure across African markets. The inaugural Atlas maps the stack from electrons to models in ten markets, separates operating capacity from announcements, and states where the entry case is real.

30 August 2026 · 10 focus markets · 55 screened · 16 min read

Macro Research · No. 1

The Four Percent Trap

A Kilwa reading of the World Bank's April 2026 outlook, extended to all 54 markets, scored for distance from takeoff, and repriced for the war premium.

August 2026 · 54 markets · 18 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 2

Rewriting the Deal

Twelve jurisdictions scored, every settlement priced, and the two playbooks that decide returns.

30 July 2026 · 12 jurisdictions · 15 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 3

The Exit Door

Twelve markets scored, every devaluation priced, and the repatriation risk the market still treats as an afterthought.

30 July 2026 · 12 markets · 14 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 5

The Permission Layer

Every African market scored, the compliance minefield mapped, and the handful of places where scale finally meets workable rules.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 16 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 1

The Strait and the Continent

A 54-country, five-region, six-sector analysis of the most under-priced tail risk in frontier investing.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 14 min read

Climate Risk · No. 1

The Ocean and the Harvest

A 25-market, four-region, four-channel analysis with the full loss model published.

30 July 2026 · 25 markets · 12 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 4

One Market, Fifty-Four Borders

Twelve corridors scored, the implementation funnel measured, and the difference between the treaty Africa signed and the market it runs.

30 July 2026 · 12 corridors · 13 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 6

The Great Swap

The realignment of Africa's security architecture, priced for supply chains, physical assets and sovereign credit. All fifty-four markets scored.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 15 min read

Capital Risk

The Missing Market

Whether the exposure can be covered, at what cost, for how long, and where no cover exists at any price.

15 July 2026 · 54 markets · 9 min read

Capital Risk

The Long Hold

Who bought, who left, who is buying now, and where the door actually opens across 54 African markets.

15 July 2026 · 54 markets · 9 min read

Quarterly Brief

East Africa Investment Intelligence Brief

Synthesised from live macroeconomic, policy and multilingual sentiment signals across five markets. Powered by Kilwa ISI and METI.

27 April 2026 · 5 markets · 7 min read

Africa Signal Check

The continent, every two or three days.

A dated executive briefing. Each story carries the Kilwa read, the condition that would prove it wrong, and the next dated catalyst — and every pre-registered call is graded in public.

All editions

24 August 2026

Local equity is the new entry fee. Lusaka shows the other way to set terms.

21 August 2026

The verdicts held. Now the campaigns bid for the reforms.

19 August 2026

The count certified. Capital picks its doors.

17 August 2026

The count held. The court closed the door.

Curated collections

The best thinking, and the proof it works.

Two collections Kilwa maintains alongside its own research: a synthesis of the most-cited AI strategy playbooks, and the deployments that delivered measured outcomes in markets like ours.

Knowledge bank

Latest “Best” AI Strategies

Nine of the most-cited AI strategy playbooks, read and distilled, then reconciled into one view of what the best sources agree on. Every source cited in full.

playbooks: 9; playbooks
recurring themes: 8; recurring themes
of publication: 8 years; of publication

Read the synthesis

Use cases

AI that paid off in markets like ours.

Eight deployments with measured outcomes, from MYbank to Zipline, told outcome-first in one framework, then two opportunities in South Africa and Nigeria modelled by Kilwa with the arithmetic shown.

measured cases: 8; measured cases
countries and regions: 6; countries and regions
Kilwa estimates: 2; Kilwa estimates

Read the cases

Viewpoints

Arguments, clearly labelled as arguments.

Positions our founder and advisers take on where the AI economy is heading, and what frontier markets should demand from it. Opinion, published as opinion.

All viewpoints

Global AI · Emerging markets

America built the AI frontier. China is building the on-ramp.

Hinsley Njila

AI, sovereignty and the cost of being misread

AI put Nigeria in the Sahara. The bigger error is how the world prices Africa.

Hinsley Njila

AI, energy and the terms of the build-out

Every AI megawatt should pay a public dividend.

Innocent B. Muhizi and Hinsley Njila

Africa Signal Check

Get the research as it publishes.

Research releases, scored market movements and the thinking behind them — sent when the signal warrants it.

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