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Kilwa

Kilwa Research

Five flagships. One scored continent.

We score tail risk, currency, exits, trade friction and energy across all 54 African markets — and publish the model, the inputs and the robustness testing alongside every number.

Forthcoming

Macro Research · No. 1

The Four Percent Trap

Africa grows fast enough to survive and too slowly to transform

August 2026 · 54 markets

Macro Research · No. 1 · August 2026

The Four Percent Trap

A Kilwa reading of the World Bank's April 2026 outlook, extended to all 54 markets, scored for distance from takeoff, and repriced for the war premium.

2.0%per-capita growth at the recovery's peak. The economies that escaped poverty last century compounded at three times that pace
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Cover of The Great Swap

Geopolitical Risk · No. 6

The Great Swap

The realignment of Africa's security architecture, priced for supply chains, physical assets and sovereign credit. All fifty-four markets scored.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 15 min read

Cover of One Market, Fifty-Four Borders

Geopolitical Risk · No. 4

One Market, Fifty-Four Borders

Twelve corridors scored, the implementation funnel measured, and the difference between the treaty Africa signed and the market it runs.

30 July 2026 · 12 corridors · 13 min read

Cover of The Ocean and the Harvest

Climate Risk · No. 1

The Ocean and the Harvest

A 25-market, four-region, four-channel analysis with the full loss model published.

30 July 2026 · 25 markets · 12 min read

Cover of The Strait and the Continent

Geopolitical Risk · No. 1

The Strait and the Continent

A 54-country, five-region, six-sector analysis of the most under-priced tail risk in frontier investing.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 14 min read

Forthcoming

Geopolitical Risk · No. 5

The Permission Layer

Regulatory fragmentation in digital assets, AI and fintech

30 July 2026 · 54 markets

Geopolitical Risk · No. 5

The Permission Layer

Every African market scored, the compliance minefield mapped, and the handful of places where scale finally meets workable rules.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 16 min read

Forthcoming

Geopolitical Risk · No. 3

The Exit Door

FX liquidity crises, sovereign restructurings, and the price of getting capital out

30 July 2026 · 12 markets

Geopolitical Risk · No. 3

The Exit Door

Twelve markets scored, every devaluation priced, and the repatriation risk the market still treats as an afterthought.

30 July 2026 · 12 markets · 14 min read

Forthcoming

Geopolitical Risk · No. 2

Rewriting the Deal

Resource nationalism and retroactive fiscal regime change across African mining

30 July 2026 · 12 jurisdictions

Geopolitical Risk · No. 2

Rewriting the Deal

Twelve jurisdictions scored, every settlement priced, and the two playbooks that decide returns.

30 July 2026 · 12 jurisdictions · 15 min read

Cover of The Long Hold

Capital Risk

The Long Hold

Who bought, who left, who is buying now, and where the door actually opens across 54 African markets.

15 July 2026 · 54 markets · 9 min read

Cover of The Missing Market

Capital Risk

The Missing Market

Whether the exposure can be covered, at what cost, for how long, and where no cover exists at any price.

15 July 2026 · 54 markets · 9 min read

Cover of East Africa Investment Intelligence Brief

Quarterly Brief

East Africa Investment Intelligence Brief

Synthesised from live macroeconomic, policy and multilingual sentiment signals across five markets. Powered by Kilwa ISI and METI.

27 April 2026 · 5 markets · 7 min read

Forthcoming

Energy Signal · No. 1

African Energy 2026

Sixteen markets, two indices, one map of where the signals point next

October 2026 · 16 markets

Energy Signal · No. 1

Forthcoming

African Energy 2026

The strongest signal in African energy is not the market the room expects. Published for African Energy Week, Cape Town.

October 2026 · 16 markets · 11 min read

Africa Signal Check

The continent, every two or three days.

A dated executive briefing. Each story carries the Kilwa read, the condition that would prove it wrong, and the next dated catalyst — and every pre-registered call is graded in public.

All editions

24 August 2026

Local equity is the new entry fee. Lusaka shows the other way to set terms.

21 August 2026

The verdicts held. Now the campaigns bid for the reforms.

19 August 2026

The count certified. Capital picks its doors.

17 August 2026

The count held. The court closed the door.

Viewpoints

Arguments, clearly labelled as arguments.

Positions our founder and advisers take on where the AI economy is heading, and what frontier markets should demand from it. Opinion, published as opinion.

All viewpoints

Global AI · Emerging markets

America built the AI frontier. China is building the on-ramp.

Hinsley Njila

AI, sovereignty and the cost of being misread

AI put Nigeria in the Sahara. The bigger error is how the world prices Africa.

Hinsley Njila

AI, energy and the terms of the build-out

Every AI megawatt should pay a public dividend.

Innocent B. Muhizi and Hinsley Njila

The Kilwa Signal

Get the research as it publishes.

Research releases, scored market movements and the thinking behind them — sent when the signal warrants it.

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