Kilwa Research

Geopolitical Risk

Tail risks and realignments, scored across all 54 markets and priced for balance sheets rather than headlines.

Geopolitical Risk · No. 6 · 30 July 2026

The Great Swap

The realignment of Africa's security architecture, priced for supply chains, physical assets and sovereign credit. All fifty-four markets scored.

51%+of global terrorism deaths now occur in the Sahel. A decade ago the region barely registered

Read the analysis

Geopolitical Risk · No. 4

One Market, Fifty-Four Borders

Twelve corridors scored, the implementation funnel measured, and the difference between the treaty Africa signed and the market it runs.

30 July 2026 · 12 corridors · 13 min read

Geopolitical Risk · No. 1

The Strait and the Continent

A 54-country, five-region, six-sector analysis of the most under-priced tail risk in frontier investing.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 14 min read

Forthcoming

Geopolitical Risk · No. 5

The Permission Layer

Regulatory fragmentation in digital assets, AI and fintech

30 July 2026 · 54 markets

Geopolitical Risk · No. 5

The Permission Layer

Every African market scored, the compliance minefield mapped, and the handful of places where scale finally meets workable rules.

30 July 2026 · 54 markets · 16 min read

Forthcoming

Geopolitical Risk · No. 3

The Exit Door

FX liquidity crises, sovereign restructurings, and the price of getting capital out

30 July 2026 · 12 markets

Geopolitical Risk · No. 3

The Exit Door

Twelve markets scored, every devaluation priced, and the repatriation risk the market still treats as an afterthought.

30 July 2026 · 12 markets · 14 min read

Forthcoming

Geopolitical Risk · No. 2

Rewriting the Deal

Resource nationalism and retroactive fiscal regime change across African mining

30 July 2026 · 12 jurisdictions

Geopolitical Risk · No. 2

Rewriting the Deal

Twelve jurisdictions scored, every settlement priced, and the two playbooks that decide returns.

30 July 2026 · 12 jurisdictions · 15 min read

Africa Signal Check

The continent, every two or three days.

A dated executive briefing. Each story carries the Kilwa read, the condition that would prove it wrong, and the next dated catalyst — and every pre-registered call is graded in public.

All editions

24 August 2026

Local equity is the new entry fee. Lusaka shows the other way to set terms.

21 August 2026

The verdicts held. Now the campaigns bid for the reforms.

19 August 2026

The count certified. Capital picks its doors.

17 August 2026

The count held. The court closed the door.

Viewpoints

Arguments, clearly labelled as arguments.

Positions our founder and advisers take on where the AI economy is heading, and what frontier markets should demand from it. Opinion, published as opinion.

All viewpoints

Global AI · Emerging markets

America built the AI frontier. China is building the on-ramp.

Hinsley Njila

AI, sovereignty and the cost of being misread

AI put Nigeria in the Sahara. The bigger error is how the world prices Africa.

Hinsley Njila

AI, energy and the terms of the build-out

Every AI megawatt should pay a public dividend.

Innocent B. Muhizi and Hinsley Njila

The Kilwa Signal

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Research releases, scored market movements and the thinking behind them — sent when the signal warrants it.

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