Geopolitical Risk · No. 6
The Great Swap
Who left, who arrived, and what the new order costs
The realignment of Africa's security architecture, priced for supply chains, physical assets and sovereign credit. All fifty-four markets scored.
Series editor Hinsley Njila, Founder & CEO · Prepared by the Kilwa Research team
of global terrorism deaths now occur in the Sahel. A decade ago the region barely registered
The call
Africa's security architecture was rebuilt between 2020 and 2026, mostly by demolition. For capital, the realignment is not a geopolitical abstraction. It is a repricing machine that has already moved tens of billions.
Rebuilt by demolition
French bases closed from Bamako to Dakar. UN missions folded. A rotating cast of new patrons arrived with drones, mercenaries and port deals.
The risk moved from the security page to the balance sheet. $58.2bn of African military spending in 2025, up 8.5%, is the fastest-growing line item on the continent — and it is being financed from budgets that were already tight.
“The risk moved from the security page to the balance sheet.”
The numbers
- 45.7m
- forcibly displaced Africans — 43% of the world's total
- 9 / 54
- markets in our critical tier, every active war zone among them
- 1
- permanent French base left on the continent: Djibouti
- $58.2bn
- Africa's 2025 military spend, up 8.5% — the fastest-growing line (SIPRI)
- ~$10bn
- Suez revenue lost to the Red Sea shock by March 2026
- $47bn+
- of LNG capex restarting in Mozambique after force majeure lifted
Series editor: Hinsley Njila, Founder & CEO. Prepared by the Kilwa Research team. research@kilwa.io
This report is research and analysis. It is not investment, legal or tax advice. Kilwa scores are structured risk rankings, not validated predictive models, except where explicitly stated otherwise. It is prepared for general circulation on a published schedule and is not tailored to any recipient.
Conflicts of interest. Kilwa does not hold, trade or take positions in the securities, currencies or instruments of the markets it scores, and receives no compensation from any government, issuer or institution in exchange for a score, a rating or favourable coverage. Where a research programme is funded by a named partner, that funding is disclosed in the report.
