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Markets · East Africa · ETH

Ethiopia: investment risk and market entry reads

Ethiopia appears in 11 published Kilwa reports. Every read below is dated, reproduced as the report prints it, and linked to the report it comes from.

Atlas No. 5 Improving but earlyMinerals Signal WatchEnergy Signal Improving but early11 reports
Ethiopia on the map of AfricaAngola — Improving but earlyBurundi — Weak structure, weak timingBenin — High convictionBurkina Faso — High convictionBotswana — Attractive structure, poor timingCentral African Republic — Weak structure, weak timingCôte d'Ivoire — Attractive structure, poor timingCameroon — Weak structure, weak timingDR Congo — Improving but earlyRepublic of the Congo — Improving but earlyDjibouti — High convictionAlgeria — High convictionEgypt — High convictionEritrea — Weak structure, weak timingEthiopia — Improving but earlyGabon — Attractive structure, poor timingGhana — High convictionGuinea — Weak structure, weak timingThe Gambia — Improving but earlyGuinea-Bissau — Weak structure, weak timingEquatorial Guinea — Improving but earlyKenya — Attractive structure, poor timingLiberia — Improving but earlyLibya — Weak structure, weak timingLesotho — Improving but earlyMorocco — High convictionMadagascar — Weak structure, weak timingMali — Attractive structure, poor timingMozambique — Weak structure, weak timingMauritania — Attractive structure, poor timingMalawi — Weak structure, weak timingNamibia — Attractive structure, poor timingNiger — High convictionNigeria — High convictionRwanda — Attractive structure, poor timingSudan — Improving but earlySouth Sudan — Improving but earlySenegal — Attractive structure, poor timingSierra Leone — Improving but earlySomalia — Weak structure, weak timingEswatini — Improving but earlyChad — Improving but earlyTogo — Attractive structure, poor timingTunisia — Attractive structure, poor timingTanzania — Attractive structure, poor timingUganda — High convictionSouth Africa — High convictionZambia — High convictionZimbabwe — Improving but earlyCabo Verde — High convictionComoros — Weak structure, weak timingMauritius — Attractive structure, poor timingSeychelles — Attractive structure, poor timingSão Tomé and Príncipe — Weak structure, weak timingEthiopia

East Africa · 14 markets · every country on the map links to its page

The published reads

Where Ethiopia sits, on two reads.

Kilwa Atlas No. 5
Ethiopia against all 54 markets on the Atlas No. 5 structure and timing readsScatter plot. Ethiopia reads 46.4 on structure (horizontal axis) and 80.8 on timing (vertical axis), against medians of 48.5 and 55.2, in the Improving but early quadrant, as of 4 September 2026.00252550507575100100High convictionImproving but earlyAttractive structure, poor timingWeak structure, weak timingSouth Africa: 77.1 · 59.9Morocco: 71.9 · 66.2Egypt: 70.0 · 61.6Mauritius: 66.5 · 47.9Côte d'Ivoire: 64.3 · 51.8Kenya: 62.0 · 44.5Senegal: 61.9 · 17.1Botswana: 61.5 · 55.1Cabo Verde: 60.9 · 55.7Namibia: 59.9 · 43.9Algeria: 58.5 · 67.2Benin: 56.1 · 55.2Ghana: 54.5 · 65.6Uganda: 54.4 · 62.9Nigeria: 53.1 · 83.1Seychelles: 52.8 · 34.1Djibouti: 52.0 · 59.1Rwanda: 51.9 · 46.8Gabon: 51.7 · 45.9Tanzania: 51.5 · 40.7Tunisia: 50.8 · 47.3Niger: 49.8 · 68.0Burkina Faso: 49.6 · 57.4Mauritania: 49.5 · 48.2Mali: 49.5 · 54.4Togo: 49.3 · 49.4Zambia: 48.7 · 69.4Guinea: 48.2 · 52.2Angola: 46.8 · 90.7Libya: 46.1 · 51.7DR Congo: 46.0 · 67.6Cameroon: 45.9 · 43.9Equatorial Guinea: 45.7 · 64.6Eswatini: 45.3 · 57.2Comoros: 42.6 · 52.4The Gambia: 42.5 · 59.6Chad: 40.5 · 77.5Lesotho: 40.4 · 60.4Guinea-Bissau: 39.6 · 47.9Republic of the Congo: 38.8 · 60.6Madagascar: 38.4 · 44.3Mozambique: 37.4 · 28.4São Tomé and Príncipe: 37.4 · 53.5Somalia: 35.6 · 34.5Zimbabwe: 35.4 · 72.5Liberia: 35.3 · 65.1Eritrea: 34.8 · 52.8Sierra Leone: 32.0 · 70.1Sudan: 21.0 · 61.9Central African Republic: 20.4 · 43.1Burundi: 18.9 · 50.7Malawi: 18.6 · 46.2South Sudan: 11.7 · 72.9Ethiopia46.4 · 80.8Structural read, 0–100 →Timing read, 0–100 →
All 54 markets on the Atlas No. 5 structure and timing reads, gauges as of 4 September 2026; Ethiopia in colour, the rest faint. Medians at 48.5 and 55.2 divide the quadrants.
Structure read46.4
median 48.5
Timing read80.8
median 55.2

Atlas No. 5 quadrant

Improving but early

The option book. Enter small, on enforcement evidence, with the Atlas No. 4 term-sheet clauses: finance the plant, not the decree, with force majeure for administrative stops.

Minerals Signal No. 1 · 14 September 2026

Watch

Real potential constrained by access, governance or security. Not one of the ten deep dives, so the continental-screen tier is its Minerals Signal read.

Energy Signal No. 1 · 7 September 2026

Improving but early

Suitability 38, timing 89, against sixteen-market medians of 48.2 and 55.8.

Reads run 0 to 100, higher is better, and split at each report’s published medians. They are structured rankings built from cited series and dated events, not validated predictive models, and none of them is ISI or METI, which remain in independent validation.

Fact sheet · World Bank and IMF

Ethiopia in ten numbers.

Snapshot as at 16 September 2026

Population
135.5 million
growing 2.6% a year (2025)
2025World Bank WDI · SP.POP.TOTL
Population aged 0–14
38.8% of the population
2025World Bank WDI · SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
Urban population
24.1% of the population
2025World Bank WDI · SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
GDP, current prices
US$ 126.4 billion
2025World Bank WDI · NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
GDP per person
US$ 933
low income group
2025World Bank WDI · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
Real GDP growth
9.2% → 9.2%
2025 estimate → 2026 projectionIMF WEO · NGDP_RPCH
Inflation, average consumer prices
13.2% → 11.8%
2025 estimate → 2026 projectionIMF WEO · PCPIPCH
General government gross debt
40.4% of GDP
2026 projectionIMF WEO · GGXWDG_NGDP
Current account balance
−2.4% of GDP
2026 projectionIMF WEO · BCA_NGDPD
Foreign direct investment, net inflows
US$ 4.0 billion
2024World Bank WDI · BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD

World Bank figures are the most recent observation in the World Development Indicators, shown with their year; IMF figures are from the World Economic Outlook (April 2026) and are the IMF’s estimates and projections, not Kilwa’s. Both are reproduced with attribution (World Bank data under CC BY 4.0). Rows without a recent observation say so rather than disappearing, so the ten rows read the same on every market page.

Report by report

Every tier Ethiopia holds in Kilwa’s research.

All research

Each row reproduces the tier and any score the report prints for Ethiopia, with that report’s own description of the tier. Reports are listed newest first. The full model, inputs and robustness testing sit in each report.

Discussed by name

Reports that argue about Ethiopia without tiering it.

Cover of East Africa Investment Intelligence Brief

Quarterly Brief · 27 April 2026

East Africa Investment Intelligence Brief

Synthesised from live macroeconomic, policy and multilingual sentiment signals across five markets. Powered by Kilwa ISI and METI.

Questions we are asked

Ethiopia, in five answers.

Where does Ethiopia sit in Kilwa Atlas No. 5?
As of 4 September 2026, Kilwa Atlas No. 5 reads Ethiopia at 46.4 on structure and 80.8 on timing, below the 54-market structure median of 48.5 and above the timing median of 55.2, which places it in the "Improving but early" quadrant. Both reads are structured rankings built from cited series, not validated predictive models.
Does Kilwa cover Ethiopia in its critical minerals research?
Yes. Minerals Signal No. 1 (14 September 2026) screens all 54 markets and places Ethiopia in the Watch tier: real potential constrained by access, governance or security. The tier is a structural characterisation, not a score; the ten numeric deep dives are named in the report.
How many Kilwa reports score or discuss Ethiopia?
10 published Kilwa reports place Ethiopia in a named tier or quadrant, 1 more discuss it by name. Each is listed on this page with its date and linked to the report, which remains the source.
How large is Ethiopia's economy, and how fast is it growing?
The World Bank puts Ethiopia's GDP at US$ 126.4 billion in 2025 (US$ 933 per person, low income). The IMF's World Economic Outlook, April 2026 estimates real growth of 9.2% in 2025 and projects 9.2% in 2026, with inflation at 11.8% and general government gross debt at 40.4% of GDP. Figures are the World Bank's and the IMF's, reproduced with attribution; the projections are the IMF's, not Kilwa's.
Can Kilwa produce a Ethiopia-specific view for our mandate?
Yes. The reads on this page are published for general circulation and are not tailored to any recipient. Kilwa's advisory services take a mandate-specific brief on capital allocation, risk and regulatory intelligence, market entry and sovereign capital, and an engagement is scoped from the services page. Research is analysis, not investment, legal or tax advice.

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This page indexes research and analysis published by Kilwa Technologies. It is not investment, legal or tax advice, is prepared for general circulation and is not tailored to any recipient. Kilwa scores are structured risk rankings, not validated predictive models, except where a report explicitly states otherwise. Kilwa does not hold, trade or take positions in the securities, currencies or instruments of the markets it scores, and receives no compensation from any government, issuer or institution in exchange for a score, a rating or coverage.